As the arduous campaign trail undertaken by the three cities bidding to host the 2020 Olympics rolls ever forward, the briefest of visits was paid by them to Nanjing last week for the start of the Asian Youth Games.

Short it may have been, but with the contest hanging on a knife-edge, the memories locked within this ancient Chinese city could ultimately give a clue to Japan's undoing come the vote in Buenos Aires on September 7.

On 13 December, 1937, the city, known then as Nanking, was overpowered by Japanese forces as they surged across China.

Six weeks later they left behind them one of history's most devastating scenes: a pillage of rape, plunder and murder which caused up to 300,000 deaths, with most of these civilian bodies left to rot in the nearby Yangtze River.

In the Second World War's first example of killing as a form of gratification soldiers allegedly held competitions as to who could bring about the most deaths.

As I make the ten minute journey away from the bubble of the Games and the Olympic Movement in order to visit Nanjing's memorial I get a sobering dose of this so tragic reality.

Alongside the monuments, sculptures and exhibitions is a burial site which has been filled with hundreds of thousands of pebbles to signify those who fell here. As mournful Chinese music echoes around the square I get a sense both of the scale of the disaster and of the impact that it continues to hold on modern China.

Pebbles in Nanjing to mark the burial ground for 300000 Japanese civilliansA sea of pebbles at the Nanjing Massacre memorial to mark the burial ground for up to 300,000 victims

China and Japan officially "normalised" relations in 1972 and this may all seem to be ancient history. But the legacy of "the rape of Nanking" remains profound and still drives the relationship today. The tendency of Japanese nationalists, including the former Governor of Tokyo and architect of the failed 2016 Olympic bid, Shintaro Ishihara, to downplay the scale of the disaster has raised the tension levels. In 2007 the film The Truth about Nanjing even denied that any massacre occurred.

Furthermore several Japanese Prime Minister's, including current leader Shinzo Abe, have visited the Yasukuni Shrine honouring those, among others, who were instigators at Nanjing and just last week the visit of three Cabinet members provoked protests across China.

Sino-Japanese tensions today are not purely driven by this memory but it is always relevant. Rival claims to islands known as Senkaku (in Japan) and Diaoyu (in China) became particularly bitter last year when the Japanese Government bought three of the islands from a private owner.

The Chinese are by no means innocent in this discourse - far from it. Their Government has promoted an aggressive foreign policy in order to detract from internal corruption allegations and reform clamour while the discovery of valuable resources nearby is also a not so innocent motivation.

Anti Japanese protesters - such as these ones in 2012 - have been a constant fixture in China in recent yearsAnti Japanese protesters - such as these ones in 2012 - have been a constant fixture in China in recent years

Yet the popular outrage is genuine as well as government engineered and to China the dispute is but a further example of the same Japanese imperialism which was evident in 1937.

So what relevance does all of this have in Tokyo's bid for the 2020 Olympics? On the basic evidence of the Asian Youth Games not too much. There were some whistles during Japan's parade at the Opening Ceremony and extremely partisan support at events including Hong Kong's rugby sevens victory over Japan, but little more serious than a pantomime villain reception.

This was the line taken by Tokyo 2020 chief executive Masato Mizuno when he said that "sport is not the same as politics", and that while for sport "there are common rules for competing with each other, there is friendship and respect."

He added that "[Our neighbours in] Asia have been friends for many years and when I visit and meet them I'm sure they support us."

Yet the popular outrage is genuine as well as government engineered and to China the dispute is but a further example of the same Japanese imperialism which was evident in 1937Japan's rugby sevens semi-final with Hong Kong was one example of the home crowd strongly supporting Japan's opponents in Nanjing

Yet when the International Olympic Committee (IOC) members actually vote in Buenos Aires next month it resembles politics more than sport and this support from Asian members is consequently far from guaranteed.

For points of comparison, London beat Paris by just four votes for 2012 and Sochi did likewise to Pyeongchang for 2014, while the battle for 2000 was won by Sydney over Beijing by an even smaller margin of two.

It might be politics' most worn out cliché but in elections every vote really does count and in a bid poised so intriguingly between three cities the contest should come down to two or three key decisions. Three IOC members are Chinese and others come from countries which tend to take a similarly anti-Japanese stance: Hong Kong and Singapore, Chinese Taipei and South Korea. There has been huge discussion concerning who these, and the 26 Asian IOC members in total, will choose and although no one is sure it is clear that failure from Tokyo with these figures will cost their bid dear.

The campaign may now be ostensibly proceeding along more diplomatic lines than the popular protests and Tokyo seems to be receiving a good reception. Yet old scars do not rub off easily, and with political tensions running high again, these Asian voters may indeed abandon Tokyo as the Japanese army abandoned Nanjing, and either Madrid or Istanbul will reap the benefits.

Source